Indsendt af
Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
Resumé
Floods and droughts are among the most dangerous and costly natural hazards. However, a global, real-time monitoring and prediction system for inland waters (including rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater resources and snow and ice packs) is presently not available. Such a system would be a tremendous asset for national and international emergency support and hazard management agencies.
A global inland water forecasting system must consist of two components: A comprehensive numerical inland water simulator and a monitoring capability based on a combination of in-situ sensor networks and remote sensing - earth observation. Similar systems have had a transformative impact for understanding and managing other large-scale environmental systems such as the atmosphere and the oceans (e.g. EU MyOcean program) and have lead to entirely new innovative products and services.
Udfordring og muligheder
Freshwater scarcity is set to become one of the most critical global resource issues in the near future. The issue is inter-linked with other global challenges, most notably climate change and food and energy security. At the same time flood hazards and vulnerability to flooding are increasing at the global scale. However, global, detailed, real-time, spatially distributed information on the state of the world’s inland waters is not available at present.
Such information would be essential for effective resource management, hazard response and mitigation. A global inland water forecasting system is expected to generate a value chain of derived products and services. Sectors benefitting from the system include water supply, flood protection and management, agriculture and food security, the energy sector, international security and conflict resolution, among others.
Målsætning
The aim is to design a global inland water forecasting system and to significantly improve real-time forecasting capability for extreme hydrological events at regional scales and global coverage. This will be achieved by combining space-borne earth observation data and in-situ sensor networks with advanced numerical simulation models using data assimilation. Results and forecasts will be disseminated in the public domain using interactive web-interfaces (similar to what is being done in the atmospheric and ocean communities).
Significant R&D challenges include the design of appropriate modeling and data assimilation strategies as well as the assessment of data and model errors. Private sector involvement is essential to master the challenges associated with data handling and storage, computing power and online interfacing. A key aim is system sustainability and long-term service guarantee, because this will encourage the development and commercialization of derived products and services.
Innovationsbehov
The main challenge is to combine and bring together various strengths available in the Danish research and innovation landscape. Denmark has a lead in advanced inland water modeling and data assimilation. This expertise needs to be combined with the earth observation and remote sensing expertise available at Danish research institutions. The relevant public and private sector partners need to streamline their R&D efforts and focus on the development of an operational global inland water forecasting system.
This requires close coordination and collaboration between the inland water modeling community and the remote sensing community in Denmark. A third component where innovation is required is data storage and handling, computing power and online interfacing. Massive real-time input data streams will have to be managed; the global modeling and assimilation scheme will require large amounts of computing power and significant data volumes will have to be made accessible online in real time.
De danske forudsætninger
Denmark has leading experts in several key areas:
- Radar altimetry for inland water (DTU Space)
- Soil moisture from active and passive microwave sensing (DTU Space)
- Total water storage from GRACE and GRACE follow-on (DTU Space)
- UAV sensing technology for ground-truthing (DTU Space)
- Multi-spectral land surface mapping for hydrologic applications (KU-IGG)
- Hydrological modeling and forecasting (DTU Environment)
- Urban water management and water resources management (DTU Environment)
- Global, real-time forecasting systems for the atmosphere and oceans (DMI)
Several Danish companies are leading players in the global water resources consulting market, for instance DHI Water Environment Health, COWI, Alectia, Rambøll. Denmark is promoting innovative solutions in the water sector as one of the country’s key strength. A global inland water forecasting system would be a high-impact, high-visibility flagship product to support this claim. DHI, DTU Space and DTU Environment have all expressed their interest and commitment to the idea.
Effekter og potentialer
An operational global inland water forecasting system would be a highly visible flagship product that puts the Danish water sector firmly on the global roadmap. Both high-level information (graphics and forecast bulletins) as well as raw data could be disseminated globally through the web interfaces. Water resources professionals worldwide would refer to the system as a source of the latest and most up-to-date information on the state of the planet’s freshwater systems.
The system would be able to support many different derived products and services with commercial potential. Similar systems for the ocean and atmosphere have, for instance, produced weather forecasting services, air quality management systems, services guiding vessels on the oceans and water quality services for tourism. A reliable system will spawn a range of similar innovative services and products for the freshwater community.